Comments on: Deal or No Deal: A Statistical Deal http://www.pearsonified.com/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_the_real_deal.php Best Damn Blog on the Planet Thu, 09 Feb 2012 15:40:07 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Andrew http://www.pearsonified.com/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_the_real_deal.php#comment-185346 Andrew Wed, 12 Oct 2011 01:38:46 +0000 http://pearsonified.com/wp/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_a_statistical_deal.php#comment-185346 My point is you are only looking at flip 31, whereas our esteemed blogger is looking at all the flips leading up to it. In the situation you describe, at that point in the game, I would rather go with 100% chance of 180k than 17% chance of going home with less than $100. I think the overall algorithm should consider how many remaining cases are above the mean, and how many below. When you stack that many low cases it makes the decision easy for me. My point is you are only looking at flip 31, whereas our esteemed blogger is looking at all the flips leading up to it.
In the situation you describe, at that point in the game, I would rather go with 100% chance of 180k than 17% chance of going home with less than $100. I think the overall algorithm should consider how many remaining cases are above the mean, and how many below. When you stack that many low cases it makes the decision easy for me.

]]> By: Andrew http://www.pearsonified.com/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_the_real_deal.php#comment-185345 Andrew Wed, 12 Oct 2011 01:33:41 +0000 http://pearsonified.com/wp/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_a_statistical_deal.php#comment-185345 flip 31 is a 50% chance. the odds of obtaining the first 30 flips all heads was 1 in a billion (literally). flip 31 is a 50% chance. the odds of obtaining the first 30 flips all heads was 1 in a billion (literally).

]]> By: The mathematics of Deal or No Deal « Cool Spot's space http://www.pearsonified.com/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_the_real_deal.php#comment-184821 The mathematics of Deal or No Deal « Cool Spot's space Mon, 15 Aug 2011 03:58:03 +0000 http://pearsonified.com/wp/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_a_statistical_deal.php#comment-184821 [...] chance, you need to use probability and statistics in order to find the optimal stop point.  This post here on this blog explains it perfectly.  The goal is not to maximize your money but try to beat [...] [...] chance, you need to use probability and statistics in order to find the optimal stop point.  This post here on this blog explains it perfectly.  The goal is not to maximize your money but try to beat [...]

]]> By: Derek Sharp http://www.pearsonified.com/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_the_real_deal.php#comment-184562 Derek Sharp Sun, 24 Jul 2011 23:40:27 +0000 http://pearsonified.com/wp/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_a_statistical_deal.php#comment-184562 Your statistical analysis of her situation is a little bit flawed. I would submit that with five cases left in the game, (i.e. four remaining that can be opened) her worst case scenario (i.e. the $300K not being in her case) would mean a 75% likelihood of opening a new case which would be lower than the $80,000 offer, and therefore raise the value of the next offer. I would take a 75% chance of increasing my money, too. Those odds are staggeringly in the player's favour to keep playing in that scenario, and the next case being in the 25% loss category was a tough bit of bad luck. Your statistical analysis of her situation is a little bit flawed. I would submit that with five cases left in the game, (i.e. four remaining that can be opened) her worst case scenario (i.e. the $300K not being in her case) would mean a 75% likelihood of opening a new case which would be lower than the $80,000 offer, and therefore raise the value of the next offer. I would take a 75% chance of increasing my money, too. Those odds are staggeringly in the player’s favour to keep playing in that scenario, and the next case being in the 25% loss category was a tough bit of bad luck.

]]> By: Deal Or No Deal (2006) | Game Glist http://www.pearsonified.com/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_the_real_deal.php#comment-184532 Deal Or No Deal (2006) | Game Glist Tue, 19 Jul 2011 19:16:27 +0000 http://pearsonified.com/wp/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_a_statistical_deal.php#comment-184532 [...] Deal or No Deal (2006) pearsonified.com [...] [...] Deal or No Deal (2006) pearsonified.com [...]

]]> By: Lance Emerson http://www.pearsonified.com/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_the_real_deal.php#comment-182863 Lance Emerson Sun, 06 Mar 2011 05:52:10 +0000 http://pearsonified.com/wp/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_a_statistical_deal.php#comment-182863 Here is a <a href="http://itusa.wordpress.com/2011/03/04/pseudocode-game-strategy" rel="nofollow">selection algorithm</a> I came up with.... Just a theory with some frequency to be determined... Good Luck = Knowledge! Besy Regards, Lance Emerson Here is a selection algorithm I came up with….
Just a theory with some frequency to be determined…
Good Luck = Knowledge!

Besy Regards,
Lance Emerson

]]> By: How to Diagnose and Remove the WordPress Pharma Hack http://www.pearsonified.com/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_the_real_deal.php#comment-182290 How to Diagnose and Remove the WordPress Pharma Hack Sun, 23 Jan 2011 05:27:07 +0000 http://pearsonified.com/wp/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_a_statistical_deal.php#comment-182290 [...] Deal or No Deal: A Statistical Deal [...] [...] Deal or No Deal: A Statistical Deal [...]

]]> By: Dave T http://www.pearsonified.com/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_the_real_deal.php#comment-182121 Dave T Sun, 19 Dec 2010 03:19:39 +0000 http://pearsonified.com/wp/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_a_statistical_deal.php#comment-182121 Sigh.... you're correct. Thank you. Sigh…. you’re correct. Thank you.

]]> By: Shawn http://www.pearsonified.com/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_the_real_deal.php#comment-182120 Shawn Sun, 19 Dec 2010 02:20:18 +0000 http://pearsonified.com/wp/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_a_statistical_deal.php#comment-182120 Dave T: No, not correct. Whether the person knows there were originally 25 boxes or only knows that there are two makes no difference. Once you're down to two boxes, one of which contains the million and one does not, we have no information about where the million is more likely to be. If you'd like to test this, you can. Get some playing cards. Take, say, five of them (you could use 26 but it would be tedious). Pick one of your five to be the "million". Shuffle them. Set one aside (the contestant's card). Then start picking cards at random and turning them over. If you hit the "million-dollar" card, reshuffle and start over This will happen about 3/5 of the time. About 2/5 of the time you'll get down to only one card (plus the contestant's card), and then you have the scenario discussed. See which of the two is the million-dollar card and record it. Repeat this process a few times -- say, 10 times. Do you find that the contestant card is the million-dollar card only one time in five? Or is it about half and half? It's easier to simulate this on a computer, but informative to do it by hand. Make sure you shuffle well. Dave T: No, not correct. Whether the person knows there were originally 25 boxes or only knows that there are two makes no difference. Once you’re down to two boxes, one of which contains the million and one does not, we have no information about where the million is more likely to be.

If you’d like to test this, you can. Get some playing cards. Take, say, five of them (you could use 26 but it would be tedious). Pick one of your five to be the “million”. Shuffle them. Set one aside (the contestant’s card). Then start picking cards at random and turning them over. If you hit the “million-dollar” card, reshuffle and start over This will happen about 3/5 of the time. About 2/5 of the time you’ll get down to only one card (plus the contestant’s card), and then you have the scenario discussed. See which of the two is the million-dollar card and record it. Repeat this process a few times — say, 10 times. Do you find that the contestant card is the million-dollar card only one time in five? Or is it about half and half?

It’s easier to simulate this on a computer, but informative to do it by hand. Make sure you shuffle well.

]]> By: Dave T http://www.pearsonified.com/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_the_real_deal.php#comment-182119 Dave T Sat, 18 Dec 2010 22:45:55 +0000 http://pearsonified.com/wp/2006/03/deal_or_no_deal_a_statistical_deal.php#comment-182119 andrew b.... I've read the above posts carefully and you know what? Your are absolutely correct. If there are two remaining boxes, the one that was picked first by the contestant and the remaining one of the 25 boxes that were left after the contestant picked the other 24 boxes, and you can tell by the tote board that the million is still unclaimed, the odds of either one of the two remaining boxes having the $1,000,000 are 50/50. But... Ahem.... IF and ONLY IF Howie takes the two remaining unmarked boxes, walks into a room that contains a person who has not been watching the game, and assuming the boxes are identical, and he then tells that person he has the freedom to pick EITHER of the two box then that person would have a 50/50 chance of winning a million. On the other hand if that person, who knows the rules of the show, is escorted to the stage and given the choice of picking either the box that the contestant picked first or the remaining box with a good looking woman standing beside it he should ALWAYS pick the box by the woman. The odds of her box remaining box containing the $1,000,000 are 25/26. The odds for the box that the contestant picked out of the original 26 is 1/26. Correct? andrew b…. I’ve read the above posts carefully and you know what?
Your are absolutely correct. If there are two remaining boxes, the one that was picked first by the contestant and the remaining one of the 25 boxes that were left after the contestant picked the other 24 boxes, and you can tell by the tote board that the million is still unclaimed, the odds of either one of the two remaining boxes having the $1,000,000 are 50/50.

But… Ahem…. IF and ONLY IF Howie takes the two remaining unmarked boxes, walks into a room that contains a person who has not been watching the game, and assuming the boxes are identical, and he then tells that person he has the freedom to pick EITHER of the two box then that person would have a 50/50 chance of winning a million.

On the other hand if that person, who knows the rules of the show, is escorted to the stage and given the choice of picking either the box that the contestant picked first or the remaining box with a good looking woman standing beside it he should ALWAYS pick the box by the woman. The odds of her box remaining box containing the $1,000,000 are 25/26. The odds for the box that the contestant picked out of the original 26 is 1/26.

Correct?

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